FEATURES OF POWER BALANCING IN THЕ LOCAL ENERGY SYSTEM WITH RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES

Abstract

The aim of the work is to consider the problem of the complex electricity supply with using of changeable renewable energy sources. Local energy systems of a regional or municipal level is the subject of this research, containing consumer groups and additional sources of dispersed generation based on wind or solar power. To effectively use the potential of renewable energy, we need to take into account the dynamic properties of energy consumption, the random nature of the wind and solar energy. One of the ways to improve the reliability of energy supply and more fully utilize of the generated energy is to use the storage systems. To assess the possibilities of energy storage and its further use, a model of energy balance in the form of a superposition of random processes is proposed. The parameters of a mathematical model are determined on the basis of a statistical analysis of synchronous data about the mode of consumption by a specific consumer and weather factors that determine the available power of renewable sources. It is accepted that the energy supply schedule is compiled based on the forecast of electricity consumption and weather factors. Current generation deviations from projected needs are examines; average daily indicators are considered to be well predicted, and in their absence, retrospective data for a long time are taken as a basis. Their connection with the forecast accuracy and variability of random processes of energy generation and consumption has been established. It was noted that the current fluctuations in consumption and generation over short time intervals are practically independent. According to the known indicators of the variability of the electricity consumption and generation processes it is possible to choose the characteristics of accumulation, such as achievable power and capacity, for reliable energy supply with a given probability.