THE DECISION OF PROBLEMS OF THE ANALYSIS TREND - SEASONAL TIME NUMBERS

Abstract

In work the technique of the decision of problems of the analysis of trend - seasonal time numbers and influences of seasonal prevalence is offered at modeling economic processes. Introduction of modern methods of the analysis and forecasting of the data is promoted by application of information technologies. The expert, thus, still has only research work - statement of a problem, an estimation of quality of the received models. For this purpose it is necessary to have corresponding preparation in a scope of computer facilities at construction of economic-mathematical models, data processing and forecasting.

The method of the analysis of seasonal prevalence offered by authors allows estimating a seasonal component at the analysis of economic processes. It promotes carrying out of qualitative geometrical modeling of the social and economic phenomena and processes on the basis of construction of adequate economic-mathematical models. Application, thus, tabulated processor Excel enables the designer of economy of time at carrying out of calculations and allows to improve skill of information search for the decision of a task in view.

The method which proposed in this article is stable in terms of changes in the given data. This allows the developed models to adequately respond to possible changes in the statistical characteristics of socio-economic phenomena and processes. The developed technique is universal from the point of view of statistical data processing and can be used to study phenomena and processes in various fields of scientific and economic activity.